Winter, Spring 2004 David Rogosa rag@stanford.edu http://www.stanford.edu/~rag/ |
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Course Meeetings: Tuesday 2:15-5 Cubberly 313 |
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access 2002 version course content at http://www.stanford.edu/class/ed260/index2002.html |
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Computing
Programs SUSE Computing Lab in CERAS LISREL SAS and HLM are supposedly installed in CERAS computer lab. |
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COURSE TEXTS Raudenbush, Stephen W., & Bryk, Anthony S. Hierarchical Linear Models. Applications and Data Analysis Methods. Sage, 2nd edition, 2002. Kline Rex B. Principles and Practice of Structural Equation Modeling (1st ed.) 1998, Guilford Publications, Inc. |
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http://www.stanford.edu/class/ed260/ballad.rm http://www.stanford.edu/class/ed260/ballad.mp3 |
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Course
Content A partially knowledgable observer could describe this course by the buzz-words "LISREL and HLM" and that concise phrase is somewhat informative. A main objective is to take a serious look at some of these advanced (and heavily marketed) statistical procedures that have become widely used (for better or worse) in education and social science. The broader perspective is to start with the data analysis (and substantive) settings that these procedures purport to address (if not solve): 1. Analysis of Multilevel Data (e.g., kids within classrooms within
schools) The point being that there is much much much more to these important topics than what is covered by LISREL and HLM (programs or writings) and the challenge of organizing this course is to weave in the larger issues. |
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Stanford
events of interest |
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Bringing Evidence-Driven Progress
To Education: main report November 2002 US DOE press release December 2003 confab, "what works" Educational Policy Example: Charter Schools Educational Policy Example: Teacher Credentialling State of art example Justin Tobias, UC Irvine: Bayesian modeling of school effects using hierarchical models with smoothing priors. |
Web
Resources Key Resource for Causal Inference: Winship's repository Counterfactual
Causal Analysis in Sociology Centre
for Multilevel Modelling (H Goldstein) Additional
Multilevel links NLME: Software
for mixed-effects models SAS PROC
MIXED and NLMIXED SAS PROC
CALIS Mplus,
B Muthen Amos by
James L. Arbuckle Stanford
Social Sciences Data Resources |
Class Meetings | |||||
1.
Jan 6. Course Introduction. Current Event: Coffee and diabetes studies Science Daily: Long-Term Coffee Consumption Significantly Reduces Type 2 Diabetes Risk Coffee: A new miracle drug for diabetics? |
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2. Jan 13. Evidence
driven education readings. |
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Data
Adventure #1. Multilevel school data taken from the MlWin
manual. The sequence of the
variables and the coding are as follows: For the data in Adventure 1, use normexam as outcome and standirt (pretest)
as predictor. |
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3.
Jan 20. Evidence driven education readings. Data Adventure #1 discussion Derivation Contentual Effects Relations (DCD) Current Event : Vitamins and Alzheimer's Science Daily: Vitamin Supplement Use May Reduce Effects Of Alzheimer's Disease Pravda: Vitamins E & C to fight Alzheimer's |
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4.
Jan 27. Analysis of Covariance and Comparing Regressions. Equivalence to HLM (High School and Beyond) Analyses; HLM example Introduction to Path Analysis and Structural Equation Models Ed257 path example Text Readings Kline Chap. 3, Chap 5 (esp 5.8, 5.10) Current Event: Sleep and Math Performance BBC: Sleep 'can increase brain power' Nature: Sleep boosts lateral thinking |
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5.
Feb 3. Multiple Regression Parameters (Mosteller & Tukey exs) Measurement error and regression; multiple regression estimates via normal eqs (path anal); Path analysis examples (Freedman notes and paper); Intro to structural equation models (Allison notes); notation and estimation handout; Text Readings Kline Chap. 7, Chap 8 |
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Data
Adventure # 2
[for Feb 10 class
mtg] |
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Data Adventure # 3 [for Feb. 10 class] (From Paul Allison course notes) Correlation Matrix class 1.00 famsize -.33 1.00 ability .39 -.33 1.00 esteem .14 -.14 .19 1.00 achieve .43 -.28 .67 .22 1.00 Do the indicated path analysis and interpret. |
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6.
Feb 10. |
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7,8.
Feb 17 and Feb 24 Discussion: critique of structural equation models |
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9.
March 2. Current event: Diabetes and child obesity, Causal-correlational farce? California Center for Public Health Advocacy report b. Holland-Rubin models for comparative experiments (causal inference) Causal Inference, Path Analysis, and Recursive Structural Equations Models Paul W. Holland Sociological Methodology, Vol. 18. (1988), pp. 449-484. Abstract Rubin's model for causal inference in experiments and observational studies is enlarged to analyze the problem of "causes causing causes" and is compared to path analysis and recursive structural equations models. A special quasi-experimental design, the encouragement design, is used to give concreteness to the discussion by focusing on the simplest problem that involves both direct and indirect causation. It is shown that Rubin's model extends easily to this situation and specifies conditions under which the parameters of path analysis and recursive structural equations models have causal interpretations. NOTE: this is a JSTOR link so it requires you to be on a Stanford IP machine (i.e. campus or campus dial-up or use proxy server) Related technical reading Statistics and Causal Inference, Paul W. Holland pp. 945-960 JASA 1986, another JSTOR link Commentaries Donald Rubin, David Cox |
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10.
March 9. Dead week mtg Causal current event, folic acid and heart attacks Student presentations, research papers |
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SPRING QUARTER 2004 | |||||
11.
March 30. Causal current event: stents and heart attacks , value of experiments intro and organization |
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12.
April 6. Causal current event: music downloads and CD sales instrumental variables analysis, Freedman stat151 book, chap 8 HLM review and discussion: B&R text chap 1-5. |
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Causal
current event: TV
and ADHD Watching TV may hurt toddlers' attention spans Toddlers' TV viewing linked to attention deficit |
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13.
April 13. AERA Week. Discussion student Research 4PM |
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14.
April 20. Continue Instrumental variables, Freedman Chap 8. Three-level HLM examples, B&R text Chap 8, SSI site |
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15.
April 27. Student research projects Non-linear Multilevel Models (counts and proportions) RB text Chap 10 (logistic and Poisson link functions) additional resources-- nlme (Bates-Pinhero book) Mixed-Effects Models in Practice lme for SAS PROC MIXED Users user guide SAS NLMIXED sugi papers see SAS v9 docs on Ceras machines Russell D. Wolfinger, SAS Institute Inc., Fitting Nonlinear Mixed Models with the New NLMIXED Procedure |
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16.
May 4. |
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17.
May 11. non-Compliance in experiments and trials. Guest lecturer Booil Jo, Dept of Psychiatry readings: Statistical Power in Randomized Intervention Studies With Noncompliance also Model misspecification sensitivity analysis in estimating causal effects of interventions with non-compliance Estimation of Intrevention Effects with Noncompliance |
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18. May 18. |
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19.
May 25. Educational application: Principal Stratification Approach to Broken Randomized Experiments: A Case Study of School Choice Vouchers in New York City [pdf on bb.stanford.edu, Ed260] Causal current event Vigorous Exercise May Slow Women's Bone Loss Study: Earlier bone-booster use may limit osteoporosis Continuing Topics. Followup on topics RB Chap 6, 10; selected topics RB Ch 11. |
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20.
June 1. Dead Week Meeting Student Research Projects Causal Current event: Study: Driving longer means larger waists |
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